Coke market risk has appeared in the second half of the year
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Significant increase in production and demand Economic benefits recovery Gold dry introduction, said in the first half of 2007, due to the rapid development of iron and steel metallurgy, chemical industry, non-ferrous metals, machinery manufacturing and other industries, driving coke production levels rose month by month. From January to June, the cumulative production of crude steel and pig iron in China's steel industry, which accounted for 87% of the country's total coke consumption, increased by 18.92% and 16.84% year-on-year, respectively. The amount of coke-bearing ferroalloy and calcium carbide industry production increased by 35.33% year-on-year. 24.13%, the mass production of foundry coke machinery industry cumulative increase of 32.15%. The rapid development of these industries, the demand for coke, pulling China's daily production of coke from 775,400 tons in January, climbing month by month to 963,000 tons in June, an increase of nearly 190,000 tons. From January to June, coking coal production enterprises above designated size produced 158.81 million tons of coke, an increase of 27.17 million tons, or 21.0% more than the previous year. Among them, the growth rate in June was 18.36% year-on-year, and the growth rate has declined. In the first half of 2007, the domestic coke apparent consumption amounted to 148.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.36 million tons, an increase of 21.54%, and its growth rate increased by 6.22 percentage points year-on-year; exports of coke totaled 8.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%. It shows that the demand for coke in both domestic and overseas markets has increased.
Since March 2006, with the high price of steel prices in the international market, the sharp increase in domestic steel prices, and the high growth in steel production, the demand for coke has increased steadily, and the price of coke has gradually risen from a serious upside down situation. In June 2007, the average price of coke >40mm was 1,245 yuan/ton, which was 100 yuan/ton higher than that in January. From January to May of this year, coking companies above designated size achieved a profit of 4.033 billion yuan, an increase of 8.53 times year-on-year. However, the industry’s average profit was only RMB 25.72/tonne, and while the whole industry turned a profit, 32.68% of the enterprises were still at a loss.
The new production capacity released a rapid increase in production output. The gold dry analysis believes that since the second half of last year, several rebounds in coke prices have brought about an increase in the economic efficiency of coking enterprises, and a number of new coke oven projects that have been approved but have been suspended have begun construction. A batch of large and medium-sized iron and steel complexes have accelerated the construction of supporting coke ovens. A number of large-scale coal groups have extended the coal coking industry chain. Some large and medium-sized independent coking enterprises continue to increase coke ovens, which will increase the speed of new production and increase the overcapacity in the coking industry. contradiction. In the first half of the year, an additional 9.95 million tons of new coke production capacity has been put into production, and 10 million tons of new production capacity will be put into production in the second half of the year. While the capacity of a number of modern large-scale coke ovens continued to increase, despite the elimination of a number of outdated small coke ovens, the increase in production capacity of new coke ovens still exceeded the reduction in the elimination of coke production capacity of obsolete small units.
In the first half of the year, the country’s output of coke increased by 21% year-on-year, 4.12 percentage points higher than the national increase in pig iron production. In June, the increase in coke production has dropped to 18.4%. At the same time, the increase in pig iron production in June decreased to 13.68%, and the growth gap widened to 4.72 percentage points. According to the prediction of the China Iron and Steel Association, in 2007, the domestic steel consumption was about 446 million tons, an increase of about 12% over the previous year; the annual crude steel output was about 480 million tons, which was an increase of about 14% over the previous year.
According to relevant departmental data, in the first half of this year, coal enterprises above designated size produced 1.082 billion tons of raw coal, which was an increase of 11.4% year-on-year; and coal exports were 24.83 million tons, which was a decrease of 21.8% year-on-year. Among them, 1,573,500 tons of coking coal was exported, a decrease of 31.85% year-on-year. Due to the high growth of domestic coke and the increase in demand, domestic coking coal resources are in short supply. In the first half of the year, 2.8185 million tons of coking coal was imported, an increase of 18.03% over the same period of last year.
Since June 1, coke export tariffs have been raised from 5% to 15%. The export company focused on exporting in advance. In May, it exported a total of 1.61 million tons, and it has been adjusted back to 1.3 million tons in June. According to the export FOB amount of US$186/ton in June, the cost of coke exports will increase by about US$16/ton in June. However, according to the current contract price, the new export cost with the tax rate increased by 10% has basically been digested, and it is difficult to achieve the goal of completely regulating the export of coke. It is estimated that the annual coke export will reach 15 million tons, which may slightly exceed the level of last year.
Optimizing the Industrial Structure and Promoting Healthy Development Golden Dryer pointed out that in order to ensure the healthy development of the industry, coking enterprises must grasp the following issues: First, the coking industry must adapt to the market demand, continue to reduce production and limit production, sell and control production, and control output too quickly. increase. Second, the coking industry must increase efforts to eliminate obsolete production capacity and strictly control the construction of new coke oven projects in order to promote the full play of advanced production capacity and optimize the industrial structure, as well as the basic balance of supply and demand in the coke market. Thirdly, new coke ovens must focus on the joint reorganization of the upstream and downstream industry chains. While focusing on the cultivation of the coking products market, it is necessary to attach great importance to the building of coal resources and the coke consumption market industrial chain, and do a good job with coal-steel and other coking coal resource bases. And coke large joint venture and cooperation. Fourthly, coking enterprises must actively and earnestly accelerate the implementation of the “Entry Conditions for Coking Industry†and “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Adjustment of the Coking Industryâ€, increase the construction of energy conservation, emission reduction, and environmental protection treatment projects, and truly undertake the construction of a harmonious society. Responsibility.