International oil prices have continued to fall. Monitoring by major domestic information agencies shows that domestic oil prices will fall for the first time in the next Tuesday as soon as possible. The agencies are expected to reduce prices by 300 yuan/ton to 320 yuan/ton. That is, the price of gasoline and diesel is expected to fall by 0.21-0.25 yuan per liter.

This round of oil price cuts "a few percent of a foregone conclusion"

According to the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, when the average price change rate of crude oil in the international market exceeds 4% within 22 working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly.

According to the monitoring data of Treasury Island, a domestic information agency, the average price of crude oil for the three markets (the change in the average price of crude oil in the international market with reference to the weighted average price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Xinta) was on March 18, 2013. At $106.400 per barrel, the average price in the last 22 days was US$109.908 per barrel, down 3.61% from the benchmark price of February 22. According to Treasure Island's calculation, it is expected that the price cuts for crude oil in the three fastest places today will exceed 4%, and will meet one of the conditions for refined oil price adjustments. In addition, the conditions for “22 working days” will be met on March 26, when the national price window for refined oil products will be fully opened. Treasure Island expects that the price of gasoline and diesel oil will be reduced by about RMB 300/ton, that is, the adjustment will be about 0.21-0.25 yuan/liter.

Zhong Yu Information analyst Wang Jintao said that yesterday's financial markets fluctuated violently, and global stock markets fell. Crude oil futures saw a sharp shock of more than US$2. The Brent oil price, which is the reference price of domestic refined oil products, continued to decline. At present, the price of crude oil in the three places is lower than US$8/barrel in the first four working days of the pricing period. Before the price adjustment is implemented, the rate of change in the three regions will certainly not be able to return to within 4%. “This is the reduction in the retail price of refined oil products. ".

On February 25, 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission increased the price of gasoline and diesel by 300 yuan and 290 yuan per ton, respectively, which was the first increase in domestic oil prices in 2013. As this time, the reduction will be on schedule, it will be the first domestic oil price drop during the year.

New pricing mechanism for domestic oil prices has not yet been introduced

Not long ago, during the “two sessions” in the country, relevant persons from the National Development and Reform Commission stated that they were studying reform plans for the formation mechanism of oil prices, but did not announce the timing of the specific plans. When the price of oil falls for the first time during the year, will the National Development and Reform Commission take the opportunity to launch a new mechanism? Treasurer Island analyst Tian Chuanfeng believes that because the new mechanism refers to international crude oil movements and links with it, it is appropriate to introduce a new mechanism at relatively low crude oil prices, and it is expected to be introduced at the earliest or in the first half of the year.

Regarding how the new mechanism will change, relevant persons from the National Development and Reform Commission have previously stated that first, they plan to shorten the price adjustment cycle, and second, they are prepared to cancel the rate of change of 4%. In addition, the market will probably adjust the reference oil type.

Domestic refined oil prices

First drop in 2013 (expected March 26)

Adjustment rate: It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by about RMB 300/ton, which is about RMB 0.21 to RMB 0.25/liter.

The first increase in 2013 (February 25)

Adjustment rate: gasoline and diesel prices increased by 300 yuan and 290 yuan per ton respectively.

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