Global LED lighting: industry development remains stable
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According to the latest demand outlook and capacity expansion of LED chip manufacturers, the global high-brightness (HB) supply and demand model continues to show tight supply in 2014. The supply/demand adequacy ratio is expected to be 3 in 2014 and is still at a tight level. Recent industry surveys have also shown that the capacity utilization of major LED chip manufacturers is at a relatively high level in the second quarter of 2014, and given the current demand outlook, the rest of the year will continue to be high. MOCVD orders are not expected to be strong, so the actual volume of new LED capacity is expected to be at the end of 2014, and the impact on 2014 will be limited. Supply tensions for the rest of 2014 will probably be the norm.
Observation: General lighting is still the main demand driver. Recent comments from global lighting companies point to strong demand for LED lighting. Osram recently said that its LEDClassics shipments may increase by 160% in the first quarter of 2014. Most lighting companies have indicated that LEDs are expected to account for 30-35 of their lighting products. In addition, it is expected to be through large-scale promotions or subsidies (such as the United States). The Energy Star program, there will be more low-priced LED bulbs on the market.
Observation: Intelligent lighting is an important theme at the 2014 Taipei Lighting Show During the Taipei Lighting Show 2014, several manufacturers demonstrated intelligent lighting systems that took advantage of the important features of LED lighting, such as adjustable brightness and color. The next phase of the rise of LED lighting will likely result from improvements in lighting control systems from commercial or residential areas. New technologies, such as flip-chip (FC) and package-free chips (PFC), will further improve the current brightness and potentially reduce the cost of the bulb to stimulate more demand.