High cost forced the chlor-alkali industry upgrade
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Production enters a high cost era
Li Jun said that China's chlor-alkali industry has entered a high-cost era. The high cost comes first from the continuous rise of oil prices. In 2007, the average price of crude oil was 72.2 U.S. dollars per barrel. From January to August this year, it reached 115 dollars per barrel. Second, domestic coal prices have a great influence on the chlor-alkali industry. Chlor-alkali industrial raw materials rose all the way this year. First, salt prices, raw salt prices in May 380 yuan / ton, in July 550 yuan / ton, up 45%; caustic soda unit salt consumption to 1.55 tons, the cost rose 263 yuan / ton. The second is electricity prices, starting from July 1 this year, the electricity prices have been adjusted across the country, the average increase in the eastern chlor-alkali industry electricity prices is 0.03 yuan / kWh. The electricity consumption of calcium carbide units is 3250 kilowatt-hours, the consumption of calcium chloride units is 1.42 tons, the cost of calcium carbide process PVC is increased by 138 yuan/ton, and the electricity consumption of caustic soda units is 2400 kilowatt hours, and the cost is increased by 72 yuan/ton. In addition, transportation costs have also increased significantly. The increase in cost will affect the competitive pattern of the domestic chlor-alkali market, and the overall pattern of the chlor-alkali industry will change.
Gradually changing industry layout
Li Jun believes that the excessive development of the chlor-alkali industry in recent years has made the market increasingly fierce. First, the operating rate showed a downward trend. From 2000 to 2003, the average growth rate of caustic soda production reached 14%, which was 4 percentage points higher than the increase in production capacity. From 2004 to 2007, the average increase in output increased to 18%, but it was lower than the growth rate of production capacity by 7 percentage points. Before 2005, the caustic soda industry maintained a relatively high operating rate and began to decline from 2006. The same situation also exists in the PVC industry. From 2000 to 2003, the average annual growth rate of PVC production was 17%, which was only 1 percentage point lower than the increase in production capacity. From 2004 to 2007, the average annual output growth was 18%, which was 10 percentage points lower than the increase in production capacity. The operating rate of the PVC industry began to decline in 2004 and will fall below 60% this year.
Second, the calcium carbide process PVC process dominates, the proportion gradually increased from about 50% in 2000 to 72% in 2007, and this trend will increase. The development speed of the chlor-alkali industry in the central and western regions is much higher than that in other regions. From 2000 to 2007, the average annual growth rate of the chlor-alkali industry in the northwest region reached 56%. In the next few years, the central and western regions will maintain a relatively high growth rate. If the proposed project is completed on schedule, the total amount will exceed North China and East China. Due to factors such as the increase in transportation prices, currently calcium carbide process PVC still has a certain cost advantage in the Midwest because it is close to the raw material production area; while in the east, due to the rising cost of raw materials and logistics, the advantages are almost lost. Therefore, there are two trends in the construction of the chlor-alkali industry. Plants are built in areas rich in raw materials (former salt, coal mines, and calcium carbide) and factories are built near the downstream companies (aluminum, petroleum, and paper industries).
Third, the development of the chlor-alkali downstream industry has slowed down. The chlor-alkali industry was able to develop rapidly in previous years. The important reason was that it benefited from the development support of the downstream industry. However, the current downstream industry has shown signs of slowing down. Compared with 2007, the caustic soda production capacity increased by 20.5% in 2008, and the output in the first half of the year reached 9.89 million tons, an increase of 12.8%. In the first half of 2008, the major alkali-alcohol industries experienced a significant drop in output growth. The increase in alumina production decreased from 47.7% in 2007 to 19.1% in the first half of 2008. Pulp was reduced from 16.1% to 2.8%, paper was reduced from 18.1% to 14.5%, and synthetic detergent was reduced from 11.7% to 4.8%. This leads to an inefficient release of caustic soda production capacity. The same is true of PVC. Compared with 2007, PVC production capacity increased by 32% in 2008, and downstream demand did not provide strong support for such high growth. In addition to maintaining a certain growth in profile and pipe materials, the growth rate of other downstream industries has slowed down significantly. The film growth rate decreased from 12.4% in 2007 to 2.5% in the first half of 2008. Plastic woven bags decreased from 31.5% to 24.5%, artificial leather decreased from 18% to 9.1%, and daily plastic products decreased from 16.1% to 8.3%. , Packaging containers decreased from 8.3% to -16%. Due to the slowdown in downstream growth, the contradiction between the oversupply of PVC is even more pronounced.
Efforts to achieve industrial upgrading
In view of the current situation facing the chlor-alkali industry, Li Jun proposed the following countermeasures:
- Seize the opportunities in the international market and expand exports. At present, the price of caustic soda in the international market is at a historically high level. The export growth momentum is strong and the processing of incoming materials has become a new mode of exploration. But we must guard against trade disputes and frictions.
——Energy conservation and emission reduction to achieve sustainable development. The implementation of policies such as energy-saving emission reduction and differential electricity pricing will push forward the structural changes in the chlor-alkali industry. The entry threshold for the industry is expected to increase, and the process for the survival of the fittest will be accelerated.
——Industry integration to promote the optimization of the industrial chain. Through mergers and reorganizations, backward production capacity will be phased out, industrial structures will be optimized, and industry will be scaled up and integrated.
- Differentiated development and improved market competitiveness. Develop new products, increase added value, strengthen after-sales service, and implement brand strategy.
——Technological progress and enhancement of core competitiveness. It promoted the ion-exchange membrane method and expanded metal anode modified diaphragm technology, dry acetylene technology, and mercury-free catalyst technology, phased out the graphite anode membrane method, and realized large-scale equipment, and the product developed toward deep processing, specialization, and high value-added.
- Self-discipline in the industry, establishing a new image of chlor-alkali. Implement cleaner production, implement industry access system, implement safety standardization work, and improve the safety management level of chlor-alkali enterprises.