In 2014, the domestic tire enterprises started lower than the 2013 tires. According to Zhuo Chuang data monitoring, the average operating rate of all steel tires in Shandong in 2014 was 70.55%, down 1.85 percentage points from 2013. The continuous decline in raw material prices, the weakening of terminal demand, the high backlog of manufacturers' stocks, and the serious obstacles in the export market have constrained the full release of domestic steel tire production capacity.
First quarter: Spring Festival limits production start-up for the whole year
In the traditional Spring Festival, the domestic all-steel tire market entered the holiday rest period, the production enterprises stopped production completely, and the operating rate fell to the lowest in the whole year. After the increase of pollution control, most of the domestic mining areas began to compulsory production, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other major production. The production and stoppage of the 100 mining areas in the district, the logistics and transportation industry is implicated, the demand for tires is difficult to increase, but the market performance is slow, the manufacturers are still immersed in the considerable profit of 2013, suppressed by the high inventory, the whole year after the steel The start of the tire business has not changed much since last year. Zhuo Chuang monitoring, the average operating rate of all steel tires in Shandong from January to March 2014 was 65.69%, which was the same as the average operating rate in January-March 2013.
Second quarter: the weak situation showed a year-on-year decline
As the all-steel tire market gradually enters the right track, the enthusiasm of the manufacturers returning to the market is high, and the export and supporting market orders are sufficient. Some of the capacity-enhancing enterprises are released in small quantities, but the sharp decline in the price of raw materials has limited the upward trend of the tire market. The weakness of the market has also begun to appear. Tire companies have frequently introduced new policies in the expectation of price cuts. This has really shocked market participants, brand competition continues to ferment, coupled with high inventory levels of manufacturers, all kinds of negative factors have suppressed the start of enterprises. Zhuo Chuang monitoring, the average operating rate of all steel tires in Shandong from April to June 2014 was 74.94%, which was 3.11% lower than the average operating rate in April-June 2013.
The third quarter: the market is not sloppy and starts to fall again
The competition in the all-steel tire market has become fierce. Although the price of natural rubber has rebounded in the middle and late June, after all, the fundamentals are low. The price of natural rubber has dropped again after the first-time price. The price of finished tires has been implicated. Some brands in the third quarter. There were two consecutive drops in the tires and not in the three packs, and Jin Jiu Yin 10 did not bring positive energy to the weak tire market. The inventory of manufacturers has been continuously backlogged, and some manufacturers have slightly reduced the starting load. In addition, most manufacturers have stopped production and maintenance during the National Day, and the average starting of all steel tires in the third quarter has declined. Zhuo Chuang monitoring, the average operating rate of all steel tires in Shandong from July to September 2014 was 71.68%, which was 2.28% lower than the average operating rate in July-September 2013.
Global methanol supply and demand profile and forecast
In 2014, the global methanol production capacity was 11.545 million tons, and the increase in production capacity was concentrated in Asia and the United States. Among them, Asia's production capacity is 83.382 million tons, and North America is 5.015 million tons. Asia accounts for 72.79% of the world's total capacity, and China's capacity has expanded significantly, accounting for 74.97% of Asia's total capacity, accounting for 54.57% of global capacity.
It can be seen from the distribution ratio of global demand consumption in 2012-2014 that the three major downstream consumers in the past three years are formaldehyde, acetic acid and dimethyl ether. Since 2013, due to the increase in the production of China's coal-to-olefins project, the amount of methanol consumed has gradually increased. In 2014, the proportion of coal-to-olefins continued to increase, basically the same as global dimethyl ether consumption.
At present, global methanol production capacity is in overcapacity, and the increase in production capacity has slowed down. However, the future capacity increase in China and North America is more obvious. According to Zhuo Chuang's incomplete statistics, the total capacity of new construction equipment in foreign countries in 2015-2017 is 10.2 million tons, most of which are located in Europe and America. If the US new plant can be put into production as scheduled, the total capacity of the US will reach 7.42 million tons by the end of 2017. Most of the devices put into production later will be shale gas to produce methanol. Because the shale gas mining and development in the US is extremely mature, it is late. The cost and competitiveness of new methanol plants are of great advantage.
The three main players in global demand are formaldehyde, acetic acid and dimethyl ether, which are in overcapacity. The demand is further increased slowly, and the downstream demand of methanol is increasing. The coal-to-olefins project in China has a great influence on demand. In 2014, the coal-to-olefins project consumed about 9 million tons of methanol. In the later period, some olefin projects were put into production, which is strong for global methanol consumption. The consumption of methanol to olefins has increased significantly since 2012. If the coal to olefins project can be put into production as scheduled, it is estimated that olefins will become the main force of methanol consumption by 2017, and the amount of methanol consumed is estimated to be over 20 million tons. Exceeding the amount of formaldehyde consumed by formaldehyde.
For more information about domestic methanol market supply and demand, port internal and external disk arbitrage analysis, port inventory analysis for the past three years, and domestic supply and demand forecast, please pay attention to Zhuochuang Information's 2014 methanol market annual report.

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