Supply and demand growth stabilized and prices fell at a high level————Analysis and prospects of production data market situation in the first three quarters
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The basic characteristics of the operation of the domestic capital goods market in the first three quarters are as follows:
The market has grown steadily and the total sales growth has dropped. In the first three quarters, the entire society realized a total sales of production materials of 10.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.7% over the same period of last year at comparable prices, and a total of 13.7 trillion yuan of sales of production materials expected to increase over the previous year. 14.8%, the growth rate dropped by 4.2%. According to statistics on 30 major production sources, in the first three quarters of this year, the total market resources (including domestic production + imports, the same below) increased by an average of 15.52%, and the total consumption demand (including domestic consumption + exports, the same below) increased on average. 15.45%, the overall supply and demand maintained a general balance, but it showed the development trend of the imbalance between supply and demand structure among varieties. On the one hand, the market demand for energy products such as crude oil and some refined oil products has steadily increased, while the supply level has dropped significantly, making it difficult to ease resource constraints. From January to September, China's crude oil resources increased by 229.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; while demand for crude oil increased by approximately 7.6% over the same period, and demand growth was faster than resource growth by 3.5%. On the other hand, the production of steel and other metal materials continues to increase, and the level of resource supply continues to increase substantially, while the growth in consumer demand has weakened, and the trend of oversupply in the market is clear.
The price has clearly fallen from the highs. The continuously rising prices of production materials showed a clear downward trend in 2005, especially in June when the inflection point was formed, and prices began to show a clear downward trend. From January to September, the total price of accumulated production materials increased by 4.4% over the same period of last year, which was 9.5 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year; the average price in September only increased by 1.9% year-on-year, which was a drop of 12% from the same period of last year. .4 percentage points.
The following problems have appeared in the operation of the domestic market this year:
First, this year, the domestic market for capital goods has maintained a steady growth. The supply of various kinds of means of production supports the ever-increasing market consumption demand, but the price corresponding to this has changed significantly. Although this trend has a high base effect last year, it continues to decline and falls back below 5%, reflecting the weakening trend in market demand and the trend of oversupply in some commodities. It also reflects people’s expectation on the production material market. Psychological changes.
The second is that some of the production materials have shifted from being tightly resourced to oversupplying. For example, some steel materials, aluminum, coke, cement, and other building materials are under pressure to reduce the growth of domestic demand and significantly reduce export demand while increasing production and releasing production capacity.
Third, the shortcomings of China's current refined oil circulation system, business model, and pricing mechanism are increasingly apparent. In order to ensure the ever-increasing demand for oil consumption, we have to pay an extra “Chinese premium†in the event of a significant increase in international oil prices. This will inevitably increase domestic inflationary pressures, curb economic growth, and also affect China’s energy security. In addition, at present, China's implementation of the "market-oriented guidance, the government decided to" pricing mechanism, the lag in the time and the pace of the non-synchronous, has brought no enthusiasm for refinery production, domestic resource outflow, resource shortage situation is intensified, supply is difficult Protection and other issues.
According to the new trends and new issues emerging in the market, as well as weakening demand growth in the face of the market, the situation of prices continuing to fall, it is recommended that the country adjust macroeconomic controls and orientation in a timely manner to maintain the general stability of the capital goods market, and prices have increased. For products and industries where there is a clear oversupply, it is necessary to stabilize production and stabilize prices, balance supply and demand, and maintain a modest growth in the market. In terms of market regulation, we must curb the blind growth of production capacity, release too fast, and reduce the low level of disorderly competition among industries. The problems in the circulation of the refined oil market involve a series of in-depth and more complex issues such as the circulation system, business model, and pricing mechanism, which require in-depth study of the topic.
The main factors influencing the trend of the 2006 capital goods market are as follows: First, China's economic growth will develop steadily and rapidly from the sustained high-speed development of the previous two years. Next year's GDP growth may fall back to 8.5%; the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society will also drop to around 20%, and the investment structure has undergone certain changes, and more downstream transfers from infrastructure construction to equipment and tools and equipment purchase. The demand for basic raw materials such as means of production is relatively reduced; the growth rate of heavy industry added value may also fall back to about 12%. Second, the growth rate of the world economy may maintain its level of approximately 4.3% this year, but it still maintains an upward trend. Export demand will continue to change as the country’s self-sufficiency increases, the demand in the international market weakens, and the country’s policy on adjusting import and export trade plays a role. Third, the country’s robust regulatory policies and enhanced self-regulatory capabilities in the market will make the demand for basic products such as energy and raw materials more rational for economic development, and the bottleneck factors such as coal, electricity, oil, and transportation that restrict economic development will continue to improve. Fourth, the international oil market will be shaken by high levels of volatility, which will inevitably have an impact and transmission on the domestic market.
Considering the above factors, it is expected that the supply and demand growth of the capital goods market will fall back as investment and heavy industry production slow down next year. The overall market supply and demand balance can be maintained, but the supply of steel materials, some steel products, and cement and other building materials markets are oversupply. The situation is difficult to change, and the shortage of energy products such as oil and electricity will obviously improve.